EVALUATION OF THE EFFECT OF DIRECT CASH TRANSFER ON THE WELFARE OF CITIZENS: LESSONS FROM SELECTED DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

Government direct cash transfer programmes have emerged as critical policy instruments for mitigating economic shocks and poverty in developing countries. This paper evaluates the effect of direct cash transfers on citizen welfare, drawing lessons from Brazil, India, Kenya, and Nigeria using a theory of change framework and empirical evidence. Findings reveal significant welfare improvements across all contexts. Brazil’s Bolsa Família reduced poverty and child mortality while increasing school attendance for over 50 million beneficiaries. India’s Direct Benefit Transfer scheme, leveraging the JAM trinity, reduced leakage and delivered welfare to 446 million account holders. Kenya’s programmes generated 40% increases in household assets, 25% higher consumption, and improved food security. Nigeria’s National Social Investment Programme enhanced household consumption, school enrolment, and women’s financial independence. However, persistent challenges include irregular disbursement, inadequate transfer amounts, weak monitoring, political interference, and supply-side constraints in education and healthcare. The effectiveness of cash transfers is further limited by insufficient budgets and structural barriers. The paper concludes that while direct cash transfers are powerful poverty alleviation tools, they require complementary interventions addressing structural constraints, shock-responsive designs, and robust institutional frameworks. Recommendations include increased budgetary provisions, institutionalization of home-grown policies, adoption of diverse transfer modalities, and comprehensive evaluation frameworks balancing immediate impacts with long-term transformation.